Nangona kwisiqingatha sesibini sika-2021, ezinye iinkampani zeemoto zachaza ukuba ingxaki yokunqongophala kwe-chip ngo-2022 iya kuphuculwa, kodwa ii-OEMs zonyukile ukuthenga kunye nengqondo yomdlalo omnye komnye, kudityaniswa nonikezelo lomgangatho wokuvelisa itshiphu ekwinqanaba lemoto Amashishini akwinqanaba lokwandisa umthamo wemveliso, kwaye imarike yangoku yehlabathi isachatshazelwa kakhulu kukunqongophala.
Kwangaxeshanye, ngenguqu ekhawulezileyo yeshishini leemoto ekufakeni umbane nobukrelekrele, ikhonkco leshishini lonikezelo lwetshiphu nalo liza kuba notshintsho olukhulu.
1. Intlungu ye-MCU phantsi kokungabikho kwengundoqo
Ngoku ukujonga emva kokunqongophala kwee-cores okuqale ekupheleni kuka-2020, ukuqhambuka ngokungathandabuzekiyo ngoyena nobangela wokungalingani phakathi kobonelelo kunye nemfuno yeetshiphusi zeemoto. Nangona uhlahlelo olurhabaxa lwesakhiwo sesicelo se-MCU yehlabathi (microcontroller) chips lubonisa ukuba ukusukela ngo-2019 ukuya ku-2020, ukuhanjiswa kwee-MCUs kwizicelo ze-elektroniki zemoto kuya kuthatha i-33% yemalike yesicelo esezantsi, kodwa xa kuthelekiswa ne-ofisi ekude ye-intanethi Ngokubhekiselele kubaqulunqi be-chip abaphezulu bexhalabile, iziseko ze-chip kunye nokupakishwa kunye novavanyo oluchatshazelwe kakhulu ziinkampani ezichaphazeleka kakhulu.
Izityalo zokuvelisa i-Chip ezikwimizi-mveliso enzima kakhulu ziya kubandezeleka ngenxa yokunqongophala okukhulu kwabasebenzi kunye nengeniso embi yenkunzi ngo-2020. Emva kokuba uyilo lwe-chip olunyukayo luye lwaguqulwa lwaba ziimfuno zeenkampani zeemoto, alukwazanga ukucwangcisa ngokupheleleyo imveliso, okwenza kube nzima ukuba iitshiphusi zihanjiswe ngokupheleleyo. Ezandleni zefektri yemoto, imeko yomthamo onganeleyo wokuvelisa isithuthi ibonakala.
Ngo-Agasti kulo nyaka uphelileyo, STMicroelectronics 'Muar plant e Muar, Malaysia kwanyanzeleka ukuba kuvalwe ezinye iifektri ngenxa impembelelo ubhubhane isithsaba esitsha, kunye nokuvalwa ngqo kwakhokelela ekuboneleleni chips for Bosch ESP / IPB, VCU, TCU kunye nezinye iinkqubo ukuba kwimeko yokuphazamiseka unikezelo ixesha elide.
Ukongeza, ngo-2021, iintlekele zendalo ezihamba kunye ezifana neenyikima kunye nomlilo ziya kubangela ukuba abanye abavelisi bangakwazi ukuvelisa ngexesha elifutshane. NgoFebruwari kulo nyaka uphelileyo, inyikima yabangela umonakalo omkhulu kwiRenesas Electronics yaseJapan, enye yezona zinto ziphambili ngokubonelela ngeetshiphusi ehlabathini.
Ukungacingelwa kakuhle kwemfuno yeetshiphusi ezingaphakathi kwemoto ziinkampani zemoto, kunye nenyaniso yokuba amalaphu aphezulu aguqule amandla emveliso yeetshiphusi ezingaphakathi kwinqwelo-mafutha kwiitshiphusi zabathengi ukuze kuqinisekiswe ixabiso lezinto eziphathekayo, kukhokelele kwi-MCU kunye neCIS eziye zadibana kakhulu phakathi kweetshiphusi zemoto kunye neemveliso zombane eziqhelekileyo. (Inzwa yomfanekiso weCMOS) ikwimeko yokunqongophala kakhulu.
Ukusuka kumbono wobugcisa, kukho ubuncinane iindidi ezingama-40 zezixhobo zemveli ze-automotive semiconductor, kunye nenani elipheleleyo leebhayisikili ezisetyenzisiweyo yi-500-600, ebandakanya ngokukodwa i-MCU, i-semiconductors yamandla (IGBT, i-MOSFET, njl.), izinzwa kunye nezixhobo ezahlukeneyo ze-analog. Izithuthi ezizimeleyo nazo Uluhlu lweemveliso ezifana neechips ezincedisayo ze-ADAS, i-CIS, iiprosesa ze-AI, iilida, iirada ze-millimeter-wave kunye ne-MEMS ziya kusetyenziswa.
Ngokwenani leemfuno zezithuthi, eyona nto ichaphazelekayo kule ngxaki yokunqongophala engundoqo kukuba imoto yendabuko idinga ii-chips ze-MCU ezingaphezu kwe-70, kunye ne-MCU yeemoto yi-ESP (iNkqubo yeNkqubo yoZinzo lwe-Electronic) kunye ne-ECU (Iinxalenye eziphambili ze-chip yokulawula isithuthi). Ukuthatha esona sizathu siphambili sokuhla kwe-Haval H6 enikwe yi-Great Wall amaxesha amaninzi ukususela kunyaka odlulileyo njengomzekelo, i-Great Wall yathi ukuhla kokuthengisa okunzulu kwe-H6 kwiinyanga ezininzi kwakungenxa yokungabikho ngokwaneleyo kwe-Bosch ESP esetyenzisiweyo. I-Euler Black Cat eyayidume ngaphambili kunye ne-White Cat nayo yabhengeza ukumiswa kwexeshana kwemveliso ngo-Matshi kulo nyaka ngenxa yemibandela efana nokucuthwa kokubonelela nge-ESP kunye nokunyuka kwexabiso le-chip.
Ngentloni, nangona iifektri ze-auto chip zakha kwaye zivumela imigca emitsha yokuvelisa i-wafer ngo-2021, kwaye izama ukutshintshela inkqubo yeetshiphusi zemoto kumgca wemveliso endala kunye nomgca omtsha we-12-intshi yemveliso kwixesha elizayo, ukwenzela ukwandisa umthamo wemveliso kunye nokuzuza uqoqosho lwesikali, Nangona kunjalo, umjikelo wokuhanjiswa kwezixhobo ze-semiconductor uhlala ungaphezulu kwesiqingatha sonyaka. Ukongeza, kuthatha ixesha elide ukulungiswa komgca wemveliso, ukuqinisekiswa kwemveliso kunye nokuphucula umthamo wemveliso, okwenza ukuba amandla okuvelisa amatsha asebenze ngo-2023-2024. .
Kuyafaneleka ukukhankanya ukuba nangona uxinzelelo luye lwahlala ixesha elide, iinkampani zeemoto zisenethemba malunga nemarike. Kwaye umthamo omtsha wokuvelisa itshiphu umiselwe ukusombulula eyona ngxaki inkulu ngoku yemveliso yetshiphu kwixesha elizayo.
2. Indawo entsha yedabi phantsi kobukrelekrele bombane
Nangona kunjalo, kwishishini leemoto, isisombululo sengxaki ye-chip yangoku inokusombulula kuphela imfuno engxamisekileyo yobonelelo lwentengiso lwangoku kunye ne-asymmetry yemfuno. Ebusweni bokuguqulwa kwamashishini ombane kunye neengqondi, uxinzelelo lokubonelela ngee-chips zeemoto luya kunyuka ngokukhawuleza kwixesha elizayo.
Ngokunyuka kwemfuno yolawulo oludibeneyo lwesithuthi semveliso yombane, kunye nomzuzu wokuphuculwa kwe-FOTA kunye nokuqhuba ngokuzenzekelayo, inani lee-chips zezithuthi zamandla amatsha liye laphuculwa ukusuka kwi-500-600 kwixesha lezithuthi ze-fuel ukuya kwi-1,000 ukuya kwi-1,200. Inani leentlobo zezilwanyana nalo liye landa ukusuka kuma-40 ukuya kwi-150.
Ezinye iingcali kushishino lweemoto zathi kwinkalo yezithuthi zombane ezikumgangatho ophezulu kwixesha elizayo, inani leetshiphusi zemoto enye liya kwanda izihlandlo ezininzi ukuya kumaqhekeza angama-3,000, kwaye umyinge we-semiconductors yeemoto kwiindleko zesithuthi sonke uya kunyuka ukusuka kwi-4% ngo-2019 ukuya kwi-12 kwi-2020% ukuya kwi-2025 kuphela. kuthetha ukuba kwixesha lobukrelekrele bombane, imfuno yeetshiphusi zezithuthi iyanda, kodwa ikwabonisa nokunyuka ngokukhawuleza kobunzima bobugcisa kunye neendleko zeechips ezifunekayo kwizithuthi.
Ngokungafaniyo ne-OEMs yendabuko, apho i-70% ye-chips yezithuthi ze-fuel i-40-45nm kwaye i-25% i-chips ephantsi-spec ngaphezulu kwe-45nm, umlinganiselo wee-chips kwinkqubo ye-40-45nm yezithuthi zombane eziqhelekileyo kunye ne-high-end-end-high kwimarike yehlile ukuya kwi-25%. I-45%, ngelixa umlinganiselo we-chips ngaphezu kwenkqubo ye-45nm kuphela yi-5%. Ukusuka kumbono wezobugcisa, iichips ezivuthiweyo eziphezulu ezingaphantsi kwe-40nm kunye ne-10nm kunye ne-7nm inkqubo ye-chips ngokungathandabuzekiyo ziindawo ezintsha zokhuphiswano kwixesha elitsha loshishino lweemoto.
Ngokwengxelo yovavanyo ekhutshwe yi-Hushan Capital ngo-2019, umyinge we-semiconductors yamandla kwimoto yonke unyuke ngokukhawuleza ukusuka kwi-21% ngeli xesha leemoto zamafutha ukuya kwi-55%, ngelixa iichips ze-MCU zehle ukusuka kwi-23% ukuya kwi-11%.
Nangona kunjalo, umthamo wemveliso wetshiphu owandisiweyo odizwe ngabavelisi abohlukeneyo usathintelwa ikakhulu kwiitshiphusi ze-MCU zemveli okwangoku ezinoxanduva lokulawula injini/itshisi/umzimba.
Kwizithuthi ezikrelekrele zombane, iitshiphusi ze-AI ezinoxanduva lokuqonda ukuqhuba ngokuzimeleyo kunye nokudibanisa; iimodyuli zamandla ezifana ne-IGBT (i-insulated gate dual transistor) ejongene nokuguqulwa kwamandla; iitshiphusi zenzwa zokujongwa kwe-radar ngokuzimeleyo zonyuse kakhulu imfuno. Inokwenzeka ukuba ibe ngumjikelo omtsha "wokunqongophala kweengxaki" iinkampani zeemoto eziza kujongana nazo kwinqanaba elilandelayo.
Nangona kunjalo, kwinqanaba elitsha, into ethintela iinkampani zeemoto isenokungabi yingxaki yomthamo wemveliso ephazanyiswe yimiba yangaphandle, kodwa "intamo ebambekileyo" yetshiphu ekhawulelwe kwicala lobugcisa.
Ukuthatha imfuno yeetshiphusi ze-AI eziziswe bubulumko njengomzekelo, umthamo wekhompuyutha wesoftware yokuqhuba ngokuzimeleyo sele ufikelele kwinqanaba le-TOPS enedijithi ephindwe kabini (imisebenzi yetriliyoni ngomzuzwana), kwaye amandla ekhompyuter yee-MCU zeemoto zemveli akanakukwazi ukuhlangabezana neemfuno zekhompuyutha zezithuthi ezizimeleyo. Iichips ze-AI ezinjengeGPUs, FPGAs, kunye ne-ASICs zingene kwimarike yeemoto.
Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka ophelileyo, i-Horizon yabhengeza ngokusemthethweni ukuba imveliso yayo yenqanaba lesithathu lemoto, i-Journey 5 series chips, yakhululwa ngokusemthethweni. Ngokutsho kwedatha esemthethweni, i-Journey 5 series chips inamandla e-computing ye-96TOPS, ukusetyenziswa kwamandla kwe-20W, kunye ne-energy ye-energy ratio ye-4.8TOPS / W. . Xa kuthelekiswa neteknoloji yenkqubo ye-16nm ye-FSD (umsebenzi wokuqhuba ngokuzimeleyo ngokupheleleyo) i-chip ekhutshwe nguTesla ngo-2019, iiparitha ze-chip enye kunye ne-computing power ye-72TOPS, ukusetyenziswa kwamandla kwe-36W kunye ne-energy ratio ratio ye-2TOPS / W iphuculwe kakhulu. Le mpumelelo iphumelele inkoliseko kunye nentsebenziswano yeenkampani ezininzi zeemoto eziquka iSAIC, BYD, Great Wall Motor, Chery, kunye neIdeal.
Iqhutywa bubukrelekrele, ukuvela kweshishini kuye kwakhawuleza kakhulu. Ukuqala kwi-FSD kaTesla, ukuphuhliswa kwe-AI eziphambili ze-chips zokulawula kufana nokuvula ibhokisi yePandora. Kungekudala emva kohambo lwe-5, i-NVIDIA yakhupha ngokukhawuleza i-chip ye-Orin eya kuba yi-single-chip. Amandla ekhompyuter anyukile ukuya kwi-254TOPS. Ngokubhekiselele koovimba bobugcisa, uNvidia wade wajonga i-chip ye-Atlan SoC enamandla enye yekhompyuter ukuya kuthi ga kwi-1000TOPS yoluntu kunyaka ophelileyo. Okwangoku, i-NVIDIA ibambe ngokuqinileyo kwi-monopoly position kwimakethi ye-GPU yee-chips eziphambili zolawulo lweemoto, igcina isabelo semarike se-70% unyaka wonke.
Nangona ukungena kwe-smartphone enkulu ye-Huawei kwishishini leemoto kuqalise amaza okhuphiswano kwishishini le-chip yemoto, kwaziwa kakuhle ukuba phantsi kokuphazamiseka kwezinto zangaphandle, iHuawei inamava oyilo olutyebileyo kwinkqubo ye-7nm ye-SoC, kodwa ayikwazi ukunceda abavelisi be-chip abaphezulu. ukukhuthazwa kweemarike.
Amaziko ophando aqikelela ukuba ixabiso le-AI chip bicycles likhuphuka ngokukhawuleza ukusuka kwi-US $ 100 ngo-2019 ukuya kwi-US $ 1,000 + ngo-2025; kwangaxeshanye, imarike yetshiphu yeemoto zasekhaya AI nayo iya kunyuka ukusuka kwi-US $ 900 yezigidi ngo-2019 ukuya kwi-91 ngo-2025. Ikhulu lezigidi zeedola zase-US. Ukukhula okukhawulezayo kwemfuno yentengiso kunye nokulawulwa kwetekhnoloji yeetshiphusi ezikumgangatho ophezulu ngokungathandabuzekiyo kuya kwenza uphuhliso olukrelekrele lwekamva lweenkampani zeemoto zibe nzima ngakumbi.
Ngokufana nemfuno kwimakethi ye-chip ye-AI, i-IGBT, njengecandelo elibalulekileyo le-semiconductor (kubandakanya iitshiphusi, ii-insulating substrates, iitheminali kunye nezinye izinto) kwisithuthi samandla esitsha esinomlinganiselo weendleko ukuya kuthi ga kwi-8-10%, nayo inefuthe elinzulu kuphuhliso lwekamva loshishino lweemoto. Nangona iinkampani zasekhaya ezifana ne-BYD, i-Star Semiconductor, kunye ne-Silan Microelectronics sele iqalile ukubonelela ngee-IGBT kwiinkampani zeemoto zasekhaya, okwangoku, amandla okuvelisa i-IGBT kwiinkampani ezikhankanywe ngasentla zisathintelwa ngumlinganiselo weenkampani, okwenza kube nzima ukugubungela ngokukhawuleza ukunyuka kwemithombo yamandla emitsha yasekhaya. ukukhula kweemarike.
Iindaba ezimnandi kukuba phambi kwenqanaba elilandelayo SiC endaweni IGBTs, iinkampani Chinese akukho kude ngasemva kwi-beko, kunye nokwandisa SiC uyilo kunye namandla okuvelisa ngokusekelwe IGBT R&D ubunakho ngokukhawuleza kulindeleke ukuba ukunceda iinkampani zeemoto kunye nobuchwepheshe. Abavelisi bafumana impumelelo kwinqanaba elilandelayo lokhuphiswano.
3. I-Yunyi Semiconductor, imveliso engundoqo ehlakaniphile
Ejongene nokunqongophala kweetshiphusi kushishino lweemoto, uYunyi uzibophelele ekusombululeni ingxaki yokubonelela ngezixhobo zesemiconductor kubathengi abakwishishini leemoto. Ukuba ufuna ukwazi malunga nezixhobo zeYunyi Semiconductor kwaye ubuze, nceda ucofe ikhonkco:https://www.yunyi-china.net/semiconductor/.
Ixesha lokuposa: Mar-25-2022