Nangona kwisiqingatha sesibini sika-2021, ezinye iinkampani zeemoto zachaza ukuba ingxaki yokunqongophala kwe-chip ngo-2022 iya kuphuculwa, kodwa ii-OEMs ziye zanda ukuthengwa kunye nengqondo yomdlalo omnye komnye, kudityaniswa nokunikezelwa komthamo wokuvelisa i-chip yemoto. Amashishini asekwinqanaba lokwandisa umthamo wemveliso, kwaye imarike yangoku yehlabathi isachatshazelwa kakhulu kukunqongophala kwee-cores.
Kwangaxeshanye, ngenguqu ekhawulezileyo yeshishini leemoto ekufakeni umbane nobukrelekrele, ikhonkco leshishini lonikezelo lwetshiphu nalo liza kuba neenguqu ezinkulu.
1. Intlungu ye-MCU phantsi kokungabikho kwengundoqo
Ngoku ukujonga emva kokunqongophala kwee-cores okuqale ekupheleni kuka-2020, ukuqhambuka ngokungathandabuzekiyo ngoyena nobangela wokungalingani phakathi kobonelelo kunye nemfuno yeetshiphusi zeemoto.Nangona uhlahlelo olurhabaxa lwesakhiwo sesicelo se-MCU yehlabathi jikelele (microcontroller) chips lubonisa ukuba ukusuka ngo-2019 ukuya ku-2020, ukuhanjiswa kwee-MCUs kwizicelo ze-elektroniki zemoto kuya kuthatha i-33% yemalike yesicelo esezantsi, kodwa xa kuthelekiswa ne-ofisi ekude ye-intanethi Ukuya kuthi ga ngoku. abaqulunqi beetshiphu banenkxalabo, iinkampani zokupakishwa kunye nokuvavanya ziye zachatshazelwa kakhulu yimiba efana nokuvalwa kobhubhane.
Izityalo zokuvelisa iChip ezikwimizi-mveliso enzima kakhulu ziya kubandezeleka ngenxa yokunqongophala okukhulu kwabasebenzi kunye nengeniso embi kakhulu yenkunzi ngo-2020. Emva kokuba uyilo lwetshiphu enyukayo luguqulwe lwaba ziimfuno zeenkampani zeemoto, khange ikwazi ukucwangcisa ngokupheleleyo imveliso, nto leyo eyenza kube nzima. ukuze iitshiphusi zihanjiswe ngokupheleleyo.Ezandleni zefektri yemoto, imeko yomthamo onganeleyo wokuvelisa isithuthi ibonakala.
Ngo-Agasti kulo nyaka uphelileyo, i-STMicroelectronics 'Muar plant e-Muar, eMalaysia kwanyanzeleka ukuba ivale iifektri ezithile ngenxa yempembelelo yesibetho esitsha sesithsaba, kwaye ukuvalwa ngokuthe ngqo kwakhokelela ekuboneleleni ngeetshiphusi zeBosch ESP/IPB, VCU, TCU kunye ezinye iinkqubo zikwimeko yophazamiseko lonikezelo ixesha elide.
Ukongeza, ngo-2021, iintlekele zendalo ezihamba kunye ezifana neenyikima kunye nomlilo ziya kubangela ukuba abanye abavelisi bangakwazi ukuvelisa ngexesha elifutshane.NgoFebruwari kulo nyaka uphelileyo, inyikima yabangela umonakalo omkhulu kwiRenesas Electronics yaseJapan, enye yezona zinto ziphambili ngokubonelela ngeetshiphusi ehlabathini.
Ukucingelwa kakubi kwemfuno yeetshiphusi ezingaphakathi kwemoto ziinkampani zemoto, kudityaniswa nento yokuba amalaphu angasentla aguqule umthamo wemveliso yeetshiphusi ezingaphakathi kwinqwelo-mafutha zibe ziitshiphusi zabathengi ukuze kuqinisekiswe ixabiso lezinto eziphathekayo, kukhokelele kwi-MCU kunye. I-CIS eneyona ndlela iphezulu yokudibana phakathi kweetshiphusi zeemoto kunye neemveliso ze-elektroniki eziqhelekileyo.(Inzwa yomfanekiso weCMOS) ikwimeko yokunqongophala kakhulu.
Ukusuka kumbono wobugcisa, kukho ubuncinci beentlobo ezingama-40 zezixhobo zemveli ze-automotive semiconductor, kwaye inani elipheleleyo leebhayisikile ezisetyenziswayo yi-500-600, ebandakanya ikakhulu i-MCU, i-semiconductors yamandla (IGBT, MOSFET, njl.), izinzwa kunye neentlobo ezahlukeneyo izixhobo analog.Izithuthi ezizimeleyo nazo Uluhlu lweemveliso ezifana neechips ezincedisayo ze-ADAS, i-CIS, iiprosesa ze-AI, iilida, iirada ze-millimeter-wave kunye ne-MEMS ziya kusetyenziswa.
Ngokwenani leemfuno zezithuthi, eyona nto ichaphazelekayo kule ngxaki yokunqongophala engundoqo kukuba imoto yemveli idinga ii-chips ze-MCU ezingaphezu kwe-70, kwaye i-MCU yemoto yi-ESP (iNkqubo yeNkqubo yoZinzo lwe-Electronic) kunye ne-ECU (Amacandelo aphambili e-chip yokulawula isithuthi. ).Ukuthatha esona sizathu siphambili sokuhla kwe-Haval H6 enikwe yi-Great Wall amaxesha amaninzi ukususela kunyaka odlulileyo njengomzekelo, i-Great Wall yathi ukuhla kokuthengisa okunzulu kwe-H6 kwiinyanga ezininzi kwakungenxa yokungabikho ngokwaneleyo kwe-Bosch ESP esetyenzisiweyo.I-Euler Black Cat eyayidume ngaphambili kunye ne-White Cat nayo yabhengeza ukumiswa kwexeshana kwemveliso ngo-Matshi kulo nyaka ngenxa yemibandela efana nokucuthwa kokubonelela nge-ESP kunye nokunyuka kwexabiso le-chip.
Ngentloni, nangona iifektri ze-auto chip zakha kwaye zivumela imigca emitsha yokuvelisa i-wafer ngo-2021, kwaye izama ukutshintshela inkqubo yeetshiphusi zemoto kumgca wemveliso endala kunye nomgca omtsha we-12-intshi yemveliso kwixesha elizayo, ukwenzela ukwandisa umthamo wemveliso kunye zuza uqoqosho lwesikali, Nangona kunjalo, umjikelo wokuhanjiswa kwezixhobo ze-semiconductor udla ngokuba ngaphezu kwesiqingatha sonyaka.Ukongeza, kuthatha ixesha elide ukulungiswa komgca wemveliso, ukuqinisekiswa kwemveliso kunye nokuphucula umthamo wemveliso, okwenza ukuba amandla okuvelisa amatsha asebenze ngo-2023-2024..
Kuyafaneleka ukukhankanya ukuba nangona uxinzelelo luye lwahlala ixesha elide, iinkampani zeemoto zisenethemba malunga nemarike.Kwaye umthamo omtsha wokuvelisa itshiphu umiselwe ukusombulula eyona ngxaki inkulu ngoku yemveliso yetshiphu kwixesha elizayo.
2. Indawo entsha yedabi phantsi kobukrelekrele bombane
Nangona kunjalo, kwishishini leemoto, isisombululo sengxaki ye-chip yangoku inokusombulula kuphela imfuno engxamisekileyo yobonelelo lwentengiso lwangoku kunye ne-asymmetry yemfuno.Ebusweni bokuguqulwa kwamashishini ombane kunye neengqondi, uxinzelelo lokubonelela ngee-chips zeemoto luya kunyuka ngokukhawuleza kwixesha elizayo.
Ngokunyuka kwemfuno yolawulo oludibeneyo lwesithuthi semveliso yombane, kunye nomzuzu wokuphuculwa kwe-FOTA kunye nokuqhuba ngokuzenzekelayo, inani lee-chips zezithuthi zamandla amatsha liye laphuculwa ukusuka kwi-500-600 kwixesha lezithuthi ze-fuel ukuya kwi-1,000 ukuya kwi-1,200.Inani leentlobo zezilwanyana nalo liye landa ukusuka kuma-40 ukuya kwi-150.
Ezinye iingcali kushishino lweemoto zathi kwinkalo yezithuthi zombane ezikumgangatho ophezulu kwixesha elizayo, inani leetshiphusi zemoto enye liya kwanda izihlandlo ezininzi ukuya kumaqhekeza angama-3,000, kunye nenani lee-semiconductors zemoto kwiindleko zempahla. yonke isithuthi iya kwanda ukusuka 4% 2019 ukuya 12 ngo 2025. %, kwaye inganyuka ukuya 20% ngo 2030. Oku akuthethi nje ukuba ngexesha lobuntlola zombane, imfuno chips izithuthi iyanda, kodwa kwakhona. ibonisa ukunyuka okukhawulezayo kobunzima bobugcisa kunye neendleko zeechips ezifunekayo kwizithuthi.
Ngokungafaniyo nee-OEMs zemveli, apho i-70% yeetshiphusi zezithuthi zepetroli ziyi-40-45nm kunye ne-25% zi-chips eziphantsi-spec ngaphezulu kwe-45nm, umlinganiselo wee-chips kwinkqubo ye-40-45nm yezithuthi zombane eziqhelekileyo kunye neziphezulu kwimarike. yehle yaya kutsho kuma-25%.I-45%, ngelixa umlinganiselo we-chips ngaphezu kwenkqubo ye-45nm kuphela yi-5%.Ukusuka kumbono wezobugcisa, iichips ezivuthiweyo eziphezulu ezingaphantsi kwe-40nm kunye ne-10nm kunye ne-7nm inkqubo ye-chips ngokungathandabuzekiyo ziindawo ezintsha zokhuphiswano kwixesha elitsha loshishino lweemoto.
Ngokwengxelo yovavanyo ekhutshwe yi-Hushan Capital ngo-2019, umyinge we-semiconductors yamandla kwimoto yonke unyuke ngokukhawuleza ukusuka kwi-21% ngeli xesha leemoto zamafutha ukuya kwi-55%, ngelixa ii-chips ze-MCU zehle ukusuka kwi-23% ukuya kwi-11%.
Nangona kunjalo, umthamo wemveliso wetshiphu owandisiweyo odizwe ngabavelisi abohlukeneyo usathintelwa ikakhulu kwiitshiphusi ze-MCU zemveli okwangoku ezinoxanduva lokulawula injini/itshisi/umzimba.
Kwizithuthi ezikrelekrele zombane, iitshiphusi ze-AI ezinoxanduva lokuqonda ukuqhuba ngokuzimeleyo kunye nokudibanisa;iimodyuli zamandla ezifana ne-IGBT (i-insulated gate dual transistor) ejongene nokuguqulwa kwamandla;iitshiphusi zenzwa zokujongwa kwe-radar ngokuzimeleyo zonyuse kakhulu imfuno.Inokwenzeka ukuba ibe ngumjikelo omtsha "wokunqongophala kweengxaki" iinkampani zeemoto eziza kujongana nazo kwinqanaba elilandelayo.
Nangona kunjalo, kwinqanaba elitsha, into ethintela iinkampani zeemoto isenokungabi yingxaki yomthamo wemveliso ephazanyiswe yimiba yangaphandle, kodwa "intamo ebambekileyo" yetshiphu ekhawulelwe kwicala lobugcisa.
Ukuthatha imfuno yeetshiphusi ze-AI eziswe bubulumko njengomzekelo, umthamo wekhompuyutha wesoftware yokuqhuba ngokuzimeleyo sele ufikelele kwinqanaba le-TOPS enamanani amabini (ibhiliyoni yokusebenza ngomzuzwana), kwaye amandla ekhompyuter ee-MCU zeemoto zemveli akanakukwazi ukuhlangabezana neemfuno zekhompyuter. yezithuthi ezizimeleyo.Iichips ze-AI ezinjengeGPUs, FPGAs, kunye ne-ASICs zingene kwimarike yeemoto.
Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka ophelileyo, i-Horizon yabhengeza ngokusemthethweni ukuba imveliso yayo yenqanaba lesithathu lemoto, i-Journey 5 series chips, yakhululwa ngokusemthethweni.Ngokutsho kwedatha esemthethweni, i-Journey 5 series chips inamandla e-computing ye-96TOPS, ukusetyenziswa kwamandla kwe-20W, kunye ne-energy ye-energy ratio ye-4.8TOPS / W..Xa kuthelekiswa neteknoloji yenkqubo ye-16nm ye-FSD (umsebenzi wokuqhuba ngokuzimeleyo ngokupheleleyo) i-chip ekhutshwe nguTesla ngo-2019, iiparameters ze-chip enye enegunya lokusebenzisa i-computing ye-72TOPS, ukusetyenziswa kwamandla kwe-36W kunye nomlinganiselo wokusebenzisa amandla we-2TOPS / W unayo. iphuculwe kakhulu.Le mpumelelo iphumelele inkoliseko kunye nentsebenziswano yeenkampani ezininzi zeemoto eziquka iSAIC, BYD, Great Wall Motor, Chery, kunye neIdeal.
Iqhutywa bubukrelekrele, ukuvela kweshishini kuye kwakhawuleza kakhulu.Ukuqala kwi-FSD kaTesla, ukuphuhliswa kwe-AI eziphambili ze-chips zokulawula kufana nokuvula ibhokisi yePandora.Kungekudala emva kohambo lwe-5, i-NVIDIA yakhupha ngokukhawuleza i-chip ye-Orin eya kuba yi-single-chip.Amandla ekhompyuter anyukile ukuya kwi-254TOPS.Ngokubhekiselele koovimba bobugcisa, uNvidia wade wajonga i-chip ye-Atlan SoC enegunya elinye lekhompyuter ukuya kuthi ga kwi-1000TOPS yoluntu kunyaka ophelileyo.Okwangoku, i-NVIDIA ibambe ngokuqinileyo indawo yodwa kwimakethi ye-GPU yeetshiphusi eziphambili zolawulo lweemoto, igcina isabelo semarike se-70% unyaka wonke.
Nangona ukungena kwe-smartphone enkulu ye-Huawei kwishishini leemoto kuqalise amaza okhuphiswano kwishishini le-chip yemoto, kuyaziwa ukuba phantsi kokuphazamiseka kwezinto zangaphandle, iHuawei inamava oyilo olutyebileyo kwinkqubo ye-7nm ye-SoC, kodwa ayikwazi. nceda abavelisi be-chip abaphezulu.ukukhuthazwa kweemarike.
Amaziko ophando aqikelela ukuba ixabiso le-AI chip bicycles likhuphuka ngokukhawuleza ukusuka kwi-US $ 100 ngo-2019 ukuya kwi-US $ 1,000 + ngo-2025;kwangaxeshanye, imarike yetshiphu yeemoto zasekhaya AI nayo iya kunyuka ukusuka kwi-US $ 900 yezigidi ngo-2019 ukuya kwi-91 ngo-2025. Ikhulu lezigidi zeedola zase-US.Ukukhula okukhawulezayo kwemfuno yentengiso kunye nokulawulwa kwetekhnoloji yeetshiphusi ezikumgangatho ophezulu ngokungathandabuzekiyo kuya kwenza uphuhliso olukrelekrele lwekamva lweenkampani zeemoto zibe nzima ngakumbi.
Ngokufana nemfuno kwimakethi ye-chip ye-AI, i-IGBT, njengenxalenye ebalulekileyo ye-semiconductor (kubandakanya iitshiphusi, i-insulating substrates, iitheminali kunye nezinye izinto) kwisithuthi samandla esitsha esinomlinganiselo weendleko ukuya kuthi ga kwi-8-10%. impembelelo enzulu kuphuhliso lwexesha elizayo loshishino lweemoto.Nangona iinkampani zasekhaya ezifana ne-BYD, i-Star Semiconductor, kunye ne-Silan Microelectronics sele iqalile ukubonelela ngee-IGBT kwiinkampani zeemoto zasekhaya, okwangoku, amandla okuvelisa i-IGBT yeenkampani ezikhankanywe apha ngasentla asathintelwa ngumlinganiselo weenkampani, okwenza kube nzima ikhusela imithombo yamandla emitsha yasekhaya ekhula ngokukhawuleza.ukukhula kweemarike.
Iindaba ezimnandi kukuba phambi kwenqanaba elilandelayo SiC endaweni IGBTs, iinkampani Chinese akukho kude ngasemva kuyilo, kunye nokwandisa SiC uyilo kunye namandla emveliso esekelwe IGBT R&D ubunakho ngokukhawuleza kulindeleke ukuba ukunceda iinkampani zeemoto kunye nemveliso. ubugcisa.Abavelisi bafumana impumelelo kwinqanaba elilandelayo lokhuphiswano.
3. I-Yunyi Semiconductor, imveliso engundoqo ehlakaniphile
Ejongene nokunqongophala kweetshiphusi kushishino lweemoto, uYunyi uzibophelele ekusombululeni ingxaki yokubonelela ngezixhobo zesemiconductor kubathengi abakwishishini leemoto.Ukuba ufuna ukwazi malunga nezixhobo zeYunyi Semiconductor kwaye ubuze, nceda ucofe ikhonkco:https://www.yunyi-china.net/semiconductor/.
Ixesha lokuposa: Mar-25-2022